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Dividend Analysis
Updated: Thursday, Jan-29-2015
11:10pm ET


Why are dividends important for determining index arbitrage conditions?
  • The fair value premium equals the interest earned on the spot index minus dividends earned by the stocks that comprise the index. The relevant time period is from the current date until the future's expiration.
  • As you might imagine, controversy exists about how to implement the above equation: some arbitrageurs measure dividends by yield; others (correctly in our opinion) by amount.
  • Both measures are presented here.

  Dividend Yields

 Index Aggregate Value of Index Components

[S&P and Nasdaq in millions.
Dow Jones in units.]
Aggregate Dividends

[Next four quarters]

[S&P and Nasdaq in millions.
Dow Jones in units.]
Dividend Yield (%)

[Aggregate Dividends divided by Aggregate Value]
Link Button to Individual Stock Dividend Yields
 S&P
[Floating Capitalization Weighted: stock price and per-share dividend are multiplied by the number of floating shares and then scaled to millions.]
17,917,059.249 385,041.588 2.15
 Nasdaq 100
[Modified Cap. Weighted: stock price and per-share dividend are multiplied by the Nasdaq weight factors and then scaled to millions.]
5,234,655.777 65,056.330 1.24
 Dow Jones
[Price Weighted: Sum of prices and dividends of stocks in the DJIA index.
(N.B. Divide stock price sum by the DJIA divisor to get the index value.) ]
2,712.080 66.989 2.47

 

  Dividend Amounts

Futures Total Dividends in Index Futures Period

[From Jan-30-2015 to
each future's expiration]

[S&P and Nasdaq 100 dividends are cap. weighted and in millions;
Dow Jones dividends are unweighted and in units.]
Divisor Adjusted Dividends

Total Dividends in Index Futures Period divided by the index divisor.

 Index Divisors:
  S&P 500 (Derived) 8,864.34594863
  Nasdaq 100 1,251.90567094
  Dow Jones Ind. Avg. 0.15571588
Link Button to Individual Stock Dividends
S&P 500      
    MAR 2015 64,973.237      7.330     
    JUN 2015 159,569.370      18.001     
    SEP 2015 255,217.632      28.791     
    DEC 2015 352,922.408      39.814     
Nasdaq 100      
    MAR 2015 12,027.424      9.607     
    JUN 2015 28,062.085      22.415     
    SEP 2015 44,141.999      35.260     
Dow Jones      
    MAR 2015 12.620      81.045     
    JUN 2015 28.933      185.810     
    SEP 2015 45.407      291.602     


 
Notes to the Calculations
  • Internal values have a precision of at least twelve decimal places. Displayed values, however, are rounded to three decimal places.
  • Therefore, if you divide the rounded amounts in the above two tables, you may get slightly different values.
    [For example, division of the rounded values for Total Dividends in Index Futures Period by the appropriate index divisor to obtain the Divisor Adjusted Dividends may produce slightly different values.] The correct values are those displayed.
 

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